Re: McCain takes lead in Rasmussen Tracking Poll, first time since

On Aug 4, 8:29 pm, daveparks <daveparks...@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote:
> On Aug 4, 10:43 pm, Rocky <no...@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote:
>
>
>
> > crystaline <rpj...@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote in news:9171ed00-09c2-4f1d-8da6-
> > 45606049c...@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
>
> > > If you think about the re****ting of the fluctuating state polls
lately
> > > that show a tight race, all of them involve red states that McCain
> > > can't afford to lose: Colorado, Montana, Virginia, Ohio, Florida,
> > > North Carolina, Alaska, Georgia, etc.
>
> > When I went to the polls to vote in the primary, I couldnt believe my
eyes.
> > Here in Mississippi, where the population of blacks is about 1/3rd,
the
> > polls were PACKED with black voters, black workers, and lots of
smiling
> > black faces. They mobilized in mass. It was striking, since all
previous
> > primary elections were nearly devoid of black voters.
>
> > I think Virginia is in play for the Dems. Richmond, ****tsmouth,
Norfolk,
> > Chesapeake, Hampton, and New****t News have lots of blacks, and if they
> > mobilize like the blacks here in Mississippi have, the state is in
play.
>
> > Alabama and Mississippi could both turn blue, if the turnout is
anything
> > like the primary turnout.
>
> > The Jews just might swing Florida, and Obama is having problems with
them.
> > A Hillary VP nod could win Florida, but Obama is too stupid to read
the tea
> > leaves. If Obama loses 20% of the Clinton sup****ters in Florida, and
loses
> > the Jewish vote, he loses the state in my opinion. The Cubans will go
> > strongly Republican in the Miami area. If the blacks in Miami dont get
out
> > in force, Obama could lose big there.
>
> > Michigan and Pennsylvania have a significant Democratic base, even
without
> > significant black turnout. With a significant black turnout in the
> > Pittsburgh and Philly areas, Obama should easily win PA. Same argument
for
> > Michigan.
>
> > I think the VP choice is critical for Obama. He cant pick a woman
unless
> > its Hillary, without pissing off much of the Dem base. That leaves a
white
> > man, and whoever it is, he better have a long and strong experience
> > background. A junior congressman will screw him. He needs to find a
long
> > toothed white haired non controversial candidate, and Im not sure
there are
> > any.
>
> But if BO picks an "old timer", doesn't that fly in the face of all
> this "Change" theme on which he's been running?
> It's definitely a double-edged sword; if he goes with an outsider, he
> gets nailed with the [inexperienced] label - if he takes an older or
> established Dem, he risks his cool "for Change" factor.  Tough call.

I don't think it's a tough call.  He simply needs to put experience on
the ticket...  The popularity contest is starting to end already, and
this is becoming a conventional presidential election like that of
every other year.  If two inexperienced outsiders are running around
the country telling us that inflating our tires will save 30 billion
barrels of oil in the face of polling data indicating 77% of Americans
sup****t drilling offshore, then things are going to implode quickly
for the Obama campaign.  And regardless of who he choses, he can still
tout the change mantra with "4 more years of Bush", etc.

>
> Seems that BO needs an experienced running mate who isn't considered
> as too much a part of "the establishment", but helps him get more of
> the 'white' vote

He needs not worry about the establishment perception.  But the white
male vote is indeed im****tant.

> while McCain needs a younger more dynamic person on
> his ticket to excite more youthful voters and gain some sup****t from
> the black community - Hmmmm...

Not it!   McCain has to concentrate on energizing the conservative
base.  That's it.  There are still too many conservatives who see
McCain as a liberal.  He needs the Ann Coulters and the Rush Limbaughs
'campaigning' for him rather than merely against Obama.  The black and
youth vote are not on the radar.